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As we enter 2018, the macro environment continues to remain supportive for credit markets generally. However, the prolonged stretch of low volatility has driven yield-hungry investors to overlook potential risks.
It may take some time for the markets to find their bottom. However, our recession indicators are not rising, our cycle indicators are not flashing warnings and our realtime activity indicators say this is a technical selling correction that will exhaust itself.
As we enter 2018, the macro environment continues to remain supportive for credit markets generally. However, the prolonged stretch of low volatility has driven yield-hungry investors to overlook potential risks. Against this backdrop, we believe the most significant risk in the loan market resides in CCC and below-rated loans, as any unexpected uptick in volatility skews risk significantly to the downside.
When ﬁnancial market historians look back at 2017, the year probably will be highlighted for its tightly compressed levels of volatility. Another notable aspect of the year is that, heading into late December, there has not been a single month of negative returns for the S&P 500 index.