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Despite the headline worries and higher volatility, we view the macro backdrop as sturdy enough to extend the economic expansion.
We believe the global economic expansion will persist into 2020...
Global and U.S. earnings revisions are turning up. We look for stabilization of the U.S. dollar, credit spreads and China’s economy as signals of sustainable future earnings growth.
Despite the headline worries and higher volatility, we view the macro backdrop as sturdy enough to extend the economic expansion.
We believe the global economic expansion will persist into 2020; despite recent soft U.S. data, Fed support will prolong the cycle.
Global and U.S. earnings revisions are turning up. We look for stabilization of the U.S. dollar, credit spreads and China’s economy as signals of sustainable future earnings growth.
We believe the equity market is in a late-cycle environment, which becomes harder to navigate as recession concerns start to rise.
Potential global economic stabilization and a slowing U.S. labor market should allow risk assets to benefit from loose monetary policies.
Sentiment-driven rallies can be powerful, but we do not yet see enough supports to sustain recent equity market gains.
Before re-entering risk markets, we await signals of adequate return potential from two of three pillars of our investment process.
As we move into 2019, we expect economic and earnings growth to slow but not stall. We remain overweight U.S. large cap and emerging market equities, but think growth abroad is more likely to surprise to the upside.
Is recent equity market volatility an overdone technical correction—or something more ominous?
This month, learn how a stable economic backdrop, well-communicated monetary policy and increasing earnings affects our outlook for stocks versus bonds.