Macro Views

We believe the risk of a technical default remains extremely low, but the consequences would be swift and painful, likely compelling elected officials to find common ground for a resolution.

Another regional bank falls, but the markets are seeing the forest from the trees as challenges appear contained.

An unexpected shock in the banking sector has stress-tested the economy and policymakers. Both initially passed. But the impact on lending and credit conditions remains unclear and increases the likelihood of a mistake by the Fed going forward.

Moving away from an abnormal regime of crisis-era stimulus won’t be a smooth process. But the volatility should be easier to stomach knowing that the destination is likely to be a healthier, more balanced economy.

Banks and borrowers must now deal with tighter credit conditions, bringing a quicker end to rate hikes but also more economic risks.

Weak global growth for the year ahead appears almost certain. The outlook for capital markets is anything but.

Are bond investors right about US rate cuts, or will the Fed hold rates steady following the end of the hiking cycle? Watch the labor market.

As we enter the new year, attention is shifting from inflation to the economy and the effects of tighter Federal Reserve policy.

For all the gloomy talk about the economy in 2023, stabilizing interest rates could be a bright spot for investors. But with imbalances lurking in the shadows, 2023 could be the year for higher-quality bonds, select large- and small-cap stocks, and private-market investments.

Our long-term return expectations for capital markets serve as key inputs into our strategic asset allocation process for multi-asset portfolios and provide context for shorter-term forecasting.