Macro Views

NYCB downgrade isn’t rattling other financials or credit markets, and showcases the opportunity in private lenders.

Our long-term return expectations for capital markets serve as key inputs into our strategic asset allocation process for multi-asset portfolios and provide context for shorter-term forecasting.

The lower outlook by Moody’s, just months after Fitch's downgrade, reflects the rating agency’s concerns over the United States' long-term fiscal stability, but the impact on bonds should be near zero.

The horrific violence that has erupted between Israel and Hamas is likely to reverberate across the Middle East and the world for years to come.

Capital markets have responded positively to better-than-expected economic outcomes so far this year. While the United States has managed to avoid an official recession, growth is almost certain to slow and increases in profits will be challenged. Given this backdrop, we see equities trading sideways to slightly higher in the near term and we continue to favor the U.S. over the rest of the world.

The ratings cut on U.S. Treasuries presents an uncomfortable reality about the United States’ long-term fiscal stability, but it’s not a doomsday scenario.

Another regional bank falls, but the markets are seeing the forest from the trees as challenges appear contained.

An unexpected shock in the banking sector has stress-tested the economy and policymakers. Both initially passed. But the impact on lending and credit conditions remains unclear and increases the likelihood of a mistake by the Fed going forward.

Weak global growth for the year ahead appears almost certain. The outlook for capital markets is anything but.

Stocks and bonds have pulled back since the Fed clarified its commitment to fighting inflation. Despite volatility, we believe equities will stay within a broad trading range and not retest earlier lows. Rising yields, particularly among spread assets, should make bonds appealing compared to equities.