Fear of inflation, which has driven stocks and bonds down in tandem year to date, is expanding to fear of a growth slowdown...
Despite our view that a U.S. economic contraction is avoidable in the near term, the outlook for equities has deteriorated since the beginning of the year...
Russia’s energy tentacles, intertwined throughout Europe’s power network, may prove difficult to excise.
We expect a big bounce in 3Q20 global growth, but because an effective COVID-19 vaccine is unlikely until mid- to late-2021, further gains in 4Q20 and 1H21 will prove more difficult.
As U.S. COVID-19 cases increase, so does the risk that economic recovery decelerates. We think policy makers will do what it takes to sustain the recovery, and therefore continue to prefer U.S. equities over bonds.
Despite our expectations for a dreadful drop in 2Q20 output, we believe a recovery will commence in 3Q20 and lead to a meaningful acceleration beginning in 2021. Accordingly, stocks still look more attractive to us than bonds.