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Look under the hood of sizzling headline inflation, and you’ll see it starting to cool.
The repercussions of US midterm elections will be felt over the coming months and years, not days. The key is how the results are transmitted to the economy, chiefly through monetary and fiscal policy.
With many aspects of the US economy in decent shape, we believe spread widening in a recession is likely to be limited. Still, investors no longer need to overreach on risk.
Russia’s energy tentacles, intertwined throughout Europe’s power network, may prove difficult to excise.
In the wake of Russia’s invasion, social factors such as energy supply security, consumer protection and responsible sourcing demonstrate the importance of an inclusionary ESG approach.
The U.S. Federal Reserve met expectations and increased interest rates by 25 basis points.
Should the Russia-Ukraine conflict persist, it would lead to further tightening of financial conditions but is unlikely to deter the Federal Reserve from a 25 basis point interest rate hike in March. Tighter conditions will slow economic growth at the margins and constrain financial markets over the short term, but not over the longer term.
While it might seem better to focus on current so-called ESG leaders, we believe there is untapped value in the underappreciated ESG improvers.
The market’s expectations for curve flattening may be excessive, as the timing of rate hikes and the aggressiveness of the Federal Reserve are still open to debate.
January 1, 2022 marked a significant milestone in the transition from LIBOR to alternative reference rates.
We see scope for continued global equity gains as the impacts from Covid, policy stimulus and inflation diminish. The current balance of market factors keeps us overweight U.S. large cap stocks.
Matthew Toms, CFA, Chief Investment Officer of Fixed Income, shares our outlook for the markets for the first half of 2022.