Iran-Driven Considerations for Fixed Income Markets

There remains a high degree of uncertainty around both the duration and ultimate outcome of the conflict involving Iran. We are not geopolitical experts, and history suggests that forecasting the path of military conflicts is particularly challenging. What we can comment on with greater confidence are the key market transmission channels and how those risks are currently being priced. 

From that perspective, the most important channel continues to be energy markets and supply chain disruptions. To date, there has been damage and disruption to regional energy infrastructure and reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz. This highlights how vulnerable global markets are to further escalation. If the conflict persists, the risk of additional damage to oil and gas infrastructure—whether production facilities, pipelines, ports, or shipping lanes—rises meaningfully, as does the potential for further disruptions to global supply chains. 

A more prolonged or expanded disruption would likely place upward pressure on headline inflation at a time when markets had been increasingly confident in a disinflationary backdrop. In that scenario, higher realized or expected inflation could stall or complicate the Federal Reserve’s easing path, despite limited pass through to core inflation. 

Importantly, this risk is not solely a U.S. issue, and global dynamics matter. China, a key economic partner of Iran and one of the world’s largest energy importers, has strong incentives to discourage severe disruptions to oil infrastructure and supply chains. A sharp and sustained rise in energy prices would be economically damaging for China, as well as for the broader global economy. As a result, China could act as a moderating influence, encouraging Iran to avoid actions—such as sustained attacks on oil facilities or prolonged closure of critical shipping routes—that would significantly impair global markets. 

That said, current market pricing suggests a degree of complacency. Since the conflict began, credit spreads have remained largely unchanged, and while Treasury yields have moved higher, the increase so far has mostly been limited to an unwind of the rally experienced late last week. In our view, markets are not priced for the increased tail-risk. 

From a portfolio perspective, we remain well positioned and flexible. Across portfolios, we have maintained sufficient liquidity and balance to allow us to add risk opportunistically should markets eventually overcorrect. 

A note about risk: The principal risks are generally those attributable to bond investing. All investments in bonds are subject to market risks as well as issuer, credit, prepayment, extension, and other risks. The value of an investment is not guaranteed and will fluctuate. Market risk is the risk that securities may decline in value due to factors affecting the securities markets or particular industries. Bonds have fixed principal and return if held to maturity but may fluctuate in the interim. Generally, when interest rates rise, bond prices fall. Bonds with longer maturities tend to be more sensitive to changes in interest rates. Issuer risk is the risk that the value of a security may decline for reasons specific to the issuer, such as changes in its financial condition.