Insights

Stormy Sea

Is This What “Unprecedented and Extraordinary” Actually Feels Like?

May 16, 2022

As investors grapple with a new era of macroeconomic uncertainty, liquidity is king in the near term.

Lighthouse in distance passed rocks

Core Bond: No Time to Die

May 4, 2022

Following the bond market’s recent beating, term yields have already priced in aggressive Fed rate hikes, positioning core bonds to effectively diversify credit risk.

Structure

Monetary Tightening to Remain on Track to Combat Inflation

April 21, 2022

Knowing the stakes, the Fed is likely to keep surprises to a minimum.

Financial conditions poised to tighten around markets

March 10, 2022

Should the Russia-Ukraine conflict persist, it would lead to further tightening of financial conditions but is unlikely to deter the Federal Reserve from a 25 basis point interest rate hike in March. Tighter conditions will slow economic growth at the margins and constrain financial markets over the short term, but not over the longer term.

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Russia invasion sparking volatility and inflation fears, but recovery remains on track

February 25, 2022
  • Economic recovery likely undeterred: Rising energy prices add risk to Europe’s recovery but are unlikely to derail the global economic recovery.
  • Expect further equity volatility: We see the strongest impacts in commodities, energy and financials, but focus should shift quickly to interest rates and supply-chain resolution.
  • Seeing value amid spread widening: We believe the impact of Russia’s actions on fixed income markets has largely played out, and any further widening in credit spreads could present opportunities.
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The Road to March

February 23, 2022

The market’s expectations for curve flattening may be excessive, as the timing of rate hikes and the aggressiveness of the Federal Reserve are still open to debate.

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