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We expect inflation to ease despite a surprisingly high CPI reading for August, allowing the Federal Reserve to temper its aggressive pace of rate increases.
The outlook for stocks and bonds given the expected paths of economic growth and interest rates.
Elevated volatility is here to stay, and that means many risk assets may become oversold, providing opportunities for investors to profit from mispriced risks.
During the 1Q20 market dislocation we argued that Securitized Credit was a compelling way to gain access to the eventual rebound of the U.S. consumer—our view today remains the same.
Fear of runaway inflation remains at the top of investors’ list of concerns—a closer look at the data suggests cooler heads will prevail.
The U.S. economic outlook continues to strengthen, with accelerating vaccinations, broadening activity and government support. The global economy should accelerate, but with less certainty due to uneven vaccination progress across countries.
Recent rate volatility suggested a disconnect between investors and Fed policy — does the old mantra of “Follow the Fed” still ring true?
We believe the economy will grow well above trend throughout 2021, as massive pent-up consumer demand is released by vaccination progress, states reopening and highly accommodative government policy.
The opportunity cost for inflation protection is high—is it worth the cost?
Our outlook continues to be that economic recovery is in the offing and will broaden into synchronous, global expansion. Segments of the economy that were protected from the pandemic should stay in a healthy holding pattern.
EM Corporates could be a valuable source of total return, carry, and diversification.
We continue to believe that inflation will prove to be a cyclical phenomenon, not a structural risk.
Headlines suggest a significant disconnect between “Main Street” and “Wall Street”—a closer look at personal income and leading economic indicators reveals a different story.